The Dollar is at a Crossroad

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The Dollar is at a Crossroad

Karibu (Welcome) G&G Readers,

It may not seem like much happened yesterday, but a very important event occurred. Yesterday, the dollar index breached 78.65. The reason that is significant is because 78.65 marked the intraday low of the prior daily cycle.

A penetration of that level indicates that the current daily cycle has now topped in a left translated manner and a new pattern of lower lows and lower highs has begun. Any time a daily cycle tops in a left translated manner it almost always indicates that the intermediate cycle has also topped.

In this case, it would indicate that the intermediate dollar cycle topped on week two and should now move generally lower for the next 10-12 weeks, bottoming sometime in late June or early July.

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The U.S. Dollar is flirting with some pretty dangerous levels.

We already know the Dollar Index has been in a decline for 10 years. So with that in mind, we are in the camp that the dollar rolls over again and makes fresh lows. I haven't seen any evidence of the bear market coming to an end. At least not yet.

Since 2008, the U.S. Dollar Index has been in a volatile 20-point range. With highs near 90 and lows towards 70, but the past year has seen a much tighter consolidation. The current uptrend line from last summer's low is being tested for the fifth time and it finally broke through opening the flood gates.

As a result of a weaker dollar, I would expect assets priced in U.S. dollars to do well. If the denominator in a fraction weakens, the numerator is going to appear that much more attractive. The metals and energy space particularly stand out in that sort of environment. Precious metals are certainly in line to benefit as well from the potential dollar rollover.

If the U.S. dollar were to turn right around and get back above 81, then I would have to reevaluate our short-term bearish position. But with the long-term downtrend still intact, and a short-term trendline break, it's hard for me not to give the dollar bears the benefit of the doubt.

What does this mean? You need to protect your financial plan…if you have one!

Remember … "if you fail to plan, then you have planned to fail."

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Meda Ase p (Thank You Very Much),

Asar Maa Ra Gray
Tax & Financial Consultant, RFC
G&G Associates
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LEGAL NOTICE: This work is based on what I've learned as a financial researcher and analyst based SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases and what I've learned as a financial consultant. It may contain errors and you should not base investment decisions solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility. Nothing herein should be considered personalized investment advice.




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