At the heart of every mass delusion, there's a 'big lie'...
The big lie is a falsehood so outrageous and so
obviously wrong, in retrospect people can hardly believe that anyone
took it seriously. The most famous example of the "big lie" is the
Salem Witch Trials, where four bored teenage girls convinced their
pastor they were possessed by the devil and that dozens of people in
their community were agents of Satan. The pastor, in turn, convinced
most of Massachusetts that the colony was inundated with witches.
Even though it's hard to imagine today, some 200
people were arrested over the next year. One poor man, Giles Corey, was
crushed to death under a pile of giant rocks because he wouldn't confess
to being a witch. And what happened to those who did confess? They were forced to name more witches. Then they were hanged. Before anyone came to their senses, 30 people were put to death. Today ... we look back at these events and
wonder how anyone could have taken seriously a bunch of teenagers
prattling on about witches and devils.
And with COVID-19, Americans have become just as irrational as those Salem witch hunters.
What's the big lie today?
The big lie today is that "we" are all in "this" together.
It's utter nonsense... "We" – the people of the
world, the people of the United States, of my state, of this city,
and even the people in my neighborhood – do not share the same values,
ideals, or circumstances. We do not have anything like the same immune
systems or face the same risks of this virus.
While it might sound friendly to say "we're all in
this together" – the reality is that we are not. And enforcing policies
that treat all of us the same is the very worst approach we could take
to dealing with this health crisis. Some of us are at much greater risk of serious harm
by this virus. Some of us are much more susceptible to infection. Some
of us own businesses or work for companies that haven't been impacted at
all. Others have seen their livelihoods, their careers, or even their
life savings wiped out.
Rather than assessing our own risks and our own
priorities and then making our own decisions, we have decided to allow
the government – really just a handful of governors and an idiot president –
to make one decision for all of us. And we're told not following the
rules means we're putting other peoples' lives in jeopardy. It's complete and utter nonsense. What's putting all
of us in jeopardy is the idea that Washington D.C. knows best and we
could follow directions – because "we're all in this together."
Adolf Hitler, in his book Mein Kampf,
explained why such "big lies" are at the foundation of all tyranny. If
you want to understand how despots operate, you should consider how one
of the worst in history manipulated large groups of people.
In the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because
the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the
deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily;
and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily
fall victims to the big lie than the small lie.
And that brings me back to today
Should we all sit in our home prisons, with our
freedom to work, to associate, and to speak taken away from us – all to
universally support "flattening" a curve, because "we" are all in "this"
together?
Or is this the public health service's Vietnam?
I have a prediction for you... By the time this
virus is thoroughly understood, what will become extremely clear is that
these shutdown orders did virtually nothing to stop the spread of the
disease or to reduce its lethality in the population. Why do I believe that? Because it's apparent already
that at least 5 times more people have been infected than are reflected
in the number of "confirmed cases"... and the real number may be much,
much greater than that.
In a town in Germany, one of the only places where a
reliable statistical sampling has been done, 14% of the population has
antibodies for the virus, which means they have already been infected.
Germany has a population of 83 million... so that's more than 10 million
people who have potentially already had this virus. And that's only in
one country.
Germany has also tested twice as many people per
capita as we have, so they know far more about the actual spread of the
virus and its real lethality.
So... how dangerous is this virus?
The official confirmed infected count in Germany is
only 135,000. And almost 4,000 Germans have died because of this virus.
That's a 3% "case rate" mortality – that is, out of the population that
has been proven to be infected, about 3% have died. That sounds really
bad and scary. After all, the average annual flu has a mortality rate of
between 0.1% and 0.2%, depending on the year. So, for example, in 2015
to 2016, the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates
that 30 million people got the flu and around 60,000 people died, or
0.2%.
But, wait... we know for sure that far more people
have gotten this coronavirus than have been tested for it. As I just
noted, the statistical sampling of antibodies in Germany suggests a
much, much lower lethality rate. The real mortality rate is probably somewhere closer to the regular flu.
So what do you want to bet that we eventually figure
out that the population-wide mortality rate for this virus is about the
same as all of the other coronaviruses? But what if I'm wrong? I might be. Nobody knows how
widespread the virus is already in the U.S. But since we don't know for
sure, why in the world are we ordering everyone to stay in their homes?
Why don't we find out and then decide?
Knowing the real lethality of the virus (which can
only be calculated if you know how many people are infected) informs us
how dangerous the virus is for most people. We already know that this virus isn't a significant
killer for people under the age of 50. Virtually no one without serious
existing conditions has died from this virus under the age of 50. And we also know from places that have actual data
that this coronavirus is no more dangerous than the other viruses that
we know circulate around our country on a regular basis every year. Knowing how many people are infected is also
critical to figuring out which policies are needed to mitigate the
impact of the disease on the hospital system.
After all, if tens of millions of people already
have the virus, you're not going to stop it by making people stay in
their homes. It's already too late. I strongly suspect that was the
case here. I suspect we will eventually learn that this virus had been
circulating undetected in the U.S. since at least October..hmm the beginning of the flu season which is around the Fall Equinox. Not going to start talking about the spiritual, physical and mental aspects of what that time of the year means ...I'll leave that for a future discussion.
What is certainly different about this virus, as
compared with the regular flu, is that when it emerged, there was zero
existing immunity to it... which meant it spread like wildfire. But the good news is that super-contagious viruses also burn out quicker because herd immunity impacts the growth rate. So... should we have shut down our entire economy
for a month in March, long after the virus had spread to millions? No!
What we're doing will not reduce the total infection rate or the
mortality rates of this virus.
It's far too late for the strategy we're using...
How do I know? The best evidence of how widespread
the virus has become comes from studies of fecal matter in wastewater
treatment plants. A group of researchers from Harvard, MIT, the
Brigham and Women's Hospital, and medtech startup company Biobot
Analytics has published research submitting that viral loads in the
wastewater from an area in Boston suggests at least 2,300 people in the
water treatment area are infected with COVID-19, roughly five times more
than the official 446 confirmed cases. No one wants to go to a hospital
or a doctor's office right now unless they absolutely have to, so it
makes sense that the vast majority of these infections go unreported.
And that's not all we know about how fast this virus spreads...Although nobody in Washington, D.C. wants to mention
it, one group of people was thoroughly tested. This group offers a
striking example of what happens when you lock people into their homes after this virus has been circulating amongst them.
There were 3,711 people on the boat (passengers and
crew). We know that 712 people were infected, despite restricting
everyone to their cabins as soon as the infection was discovered. That's
an infection rate of almost 20% in a matter of days. This is a very,
very contagious virus. Keep in mind, the lockdown on the boat began on
February 5, which was only four days after the first case was discovered
in Hong Kong. This virus spreads like wildfire.
On the other hand, even in a population that is
much, much older than average and that featured substantial
population-wide comorbidities like high blood pressure and obesity, only
12 people died. That's 1.7% of the people who got infected. Yes, that's
much worse than the average flu – but not if you adjust for the age and
relative health of the population.
Researchers who have studied the cruise ship
outbreak in detail estimate that this virus will have 0.5% lethality in
the general U.S. population – which is, again, comparable to the regular
annual flu.
We have already seen that the initial forecasts of
more than 2 million deaths is complete nonsense. When the president
ordered the economy to shut down, he claimed that if we didn't take this
step of cowering in our homes, then millions would die. "People will be
dropping dead on the subway,"
Trump claimed, as though Ebola was on the
loose. All bullshit. This virus is definitely dangerous to the old and
the sick. To everyone else, it's going to be a nonevent... just like any
other flu season.
Here's a prediction...
In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and
100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end
of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from
this virus.
And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero
difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and
the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and
Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business
or stay in their homes.
If you accept that the virus had been circulating in
our population for months by the time the lockdown orders arrived
(which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious,
then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the
barn door when the horses were already long gone.
What does work to control the spread of a
novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great,
especially in younger people. We can handle viruses. What we should do is tell older and sicker people to
put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid
hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.
We should have told everyone else: Go about your
lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% –
are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of
the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching
COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the
regular flu.)
And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But
the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is
that you won't have any symptoms at all. So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go
and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle
it, and when they can quickly develop immunity. That's the best way to build the herd immunity we
need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As
quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need
develops naturally, the safer we will all be.
If the media hadn't gotten hold of this story and if our political leaders hadn't panicked...
This year would have just been a really bad flu season – nothing more. And whether you agree with me or not, one thing is
certain... Hiding in our homes will not make us any safer – not for
long. As soon as we leave our isolation, the virus will spread again.
There's no way to stop a virus that's this contagious and this
widespread in a population this large.
It will take at least a year to build a vaccine. And until then, what we desperately need is for people who aren't at risk of dying to expose themselves and build immunity. And guess what... That's exactly what's going to
happen – eventually. The only question is when. It can happen six
months' from now if we want to cripple our economy and lose $10 trillion
to $20 trillion (plus all of our liberties). Or it can happen in about
six weeks if we all just go back to work and deal with it like adults.
So what should we do?
If you're over 60 or if you're in poor health, by
all means, do everything you can to avoid catching the flu this year.
The hospital isn't going to be able to help you. You have to make sure
you don't get sick!
But if you're in good health, and especially if
you're under 50, simply ignore everything and live a normal life. It's
no big deal.
Interestingly, if we had respected people's civil
liberties, that's almost certainly what would have happened. A lot of
people would have gotten sick at first because nobody knew a new virus
was circulating. But as soon as people saw what was happening, the old
and the sick would have taken much greater precautions. The rest of us
would have gotten exposed – probably about 20% of the population in 60
to 90 days. And then it would have burned out as immunity in the
population grew – just like the regular flu.
Meanwhile, there are tens of millions more people
who have far more to fear from the economic consequences of these
policies than they have of the virus. And guess what?
There's no way to develop immunity from the State...
This situation sets a precedent that will surely be
exploited for years to come. The government's getting used to ordering
us all around. It isn't going to stop. Meanwhile, God gave us the ability to reason – to
judge for ourselves what risks to take and which to avoid. God also gave
all of us the liberty to live our lives as we see fit. Our leaders
don't have the right to make these choices for us.
When we let them, we
doom ourselves to the worst possible outcomes. Our "purported" leaders' ability or willingness to make good decisions is questionable or almost non-existent. They don't even know how many people have the virus already and they never bothered to find out!
They've completely ignored the Diamond Princess
cruise ship case study, the German data, and the wastewater studies.
They're doing the only thing they can with their very limited
understanding of this virus: Ordering everyone to stay home. Meanwhile,
plenty of hard evidence shows why this strategy won't work and isn't
necessary. But beyond all of the facts and the medicine...
